The preface openly states the lens through which this garbage should be read...
This document explores how the “long war” might unfold in the
coming years. It looks out to about the year 2020 and reports on the
major trends, uncertainties, participants, and ways the long war might unfold through the use of eight speciﬁc trajectories.
This work will interest those involved in military training, force
structure, policy, and how the conﬂuence of governance, terrorism, and ideology might aﬀect the U.S. military forces.
This research was sponsored by the U.S. Army Training and
Doctrine Command, Army Capability Integration Center, and was
conducted within RAND Arroyo Center’s Force Development and
Technology Program. RAND Arroyo Center, part of the RAND Cor-
poration, is a federally funded ressored by the United States Army."
The summary is also rife with doozies...
The United States is currently engaged in what has been characterized as the “long war.” The long war has been described by some as an epic struggle against adversaries bent on forming a uniﬁed Islamic world to supplant Western dominance, while others characterize it more narrowly as an extension of the war on terror. But while policymakers, military leaders, and scholars have oﬀered numerous deﬁnitions of the long war, no consensus has been reached about this term or its implications for the United States. To understand the eﬀects that this long war will have on the U.S. Army and on U.S. forces in general, it is necessary to understand more precisely what the long war is and how it might unfold. To address this need, this study explores the concept of the long war and identiﬁes potential ways in which it might unfold as well
as the implications for the Army and the U.S. military more generally.
Framework for Understanding the Long War
As seen in Figure S.1, one way to think about the potential threats the United States faces in the long war is to consider the conﬂuence of three problems raised by the war: those related to the ideologies espoused by key adversaries in the conﬂict, those related to the use of terrorism, and those related to governance (i.e., its absence or presence, its quality, and the predisposition of speciﬁc governing bodies to the United States and its interests). The goal of this report is not to determine which of these areas is the key problem. Instead, we take the stance that to ensure that this long war follows a favorable course, the United States will need to
make a concerted eﬀort across all three domains.